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Episode Chapters:
- 01:01: Faculty Dropouts
- 03:26: Survivorship Bias
- 05:59: Episode Break
- 08:19: Finest Songs
- 09:05: Timing the Market
- 11:56: Buying and selling vs Investing
Excerpts and Highlights:
Simply because a selected technique labored for some folks, it doesn’t imply it’s an excellent technique for everybody. As a result of with survivorship bias, you’re forgetting others who did the identical factor however failed; and people others who failed may very well be higher in quantity than those that succeeded.
“A silly determination that works out properly turns into a superb determination in hindsight.” –Daniel Kahneman.
Contemplating survivorship bias when introduced with examples of success is tough. It’s not instinctive to pause, mirror, and suppose by means of what you’re not seeing.
Understanding survivorship bias is an important device that can assist you lower by means of the noise and perceive the world. It permits you to make totally knowledgeable choices, and enhance your possibilities of success.
Hyperlinks and Assets:
- The Determination Lab: Why can we misjudge teams by solely taking a look at particular group members?
- Jonathan Wai & Heiner Rindermann (2017) What goes into excessive academic and occupational achievement? Schooling, brains, onerous work, networks, and different components
- Barber, Brad & Lee, Yong-Ailing & Liu, Yu-Jane & Odean, Terrance. (2004). Do Particular person Day Merchants Make Cash? Proof from Taiwan.
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